All pundits, observers, experts have given up on the current world circumstances. No more, wise expostulations, predictions, sagacious it’s too self-destructive. Coincidentally, the imponderables are not only the prattle of a mercurial head of state. Fuzzy Logic, Predictive Analysis, AI, Scenario Building even gut feelings all seem to fail. When closing a canal is opening it, when swift end to war means extending deadlines ad nauseam, when not needing anyone means please help against Iran, when it’s more fun to sink ships, when the war is over means it has yet to start. It may mean supporting a nation’s people and threatening to end civilization. It’s amazing how the world today has become so indifferent and living as automatons. As some say it’s a one man’s world and all are living in it. Flip flops are after all sandals. Jesus can be impersonated and on Truth Social Pope Leo XIV can be called “weak” on crime and “terrible” for foreign policy. Monopolization of media is complete. Cease Fire, Peace talks in Islamabad have all failed. People around the world have learnt to ignore but a heavy price in being paid nevertheless.
India is on the edge of the knife. World Bank assessment points out that due to Iran war India’s GDP growth rate may fall below the crucial 7% mark. There could be a Fiscal hit of 2 Lakh Crore. The Govt. has cut Excise and Subsidies which impacts finances, trade deficits, Rupee weakness, supply disruptions in turn impacting macroeconomics. India brings Natural Gas and LPG from the gulf region routinely. Over 60 percent of LPG imports come through the routes affected at present. Oil Price Uncertainty Index has surged. Exporters have to pay more for shipping and insurance. Remittances from Gulf workers are dropping. Almost 125 billion dollars come every year to Indian families. During the initial days of war, Stocks fell sharply on Indian exchanges. The rupee lost value very quickly against the dollar. Imports have become costlier. Transport bills have risen for road, rail and airways. Fertilizer plants are cutting output due to gas shortage in some states. And the reality is, Prices may remain high even after the war ends.
The government has moved quickly cutting excise and taking measures to hold the price line for supply of Petrol, Diesel and PDS Kerosene. Prices for Non PDS Kerosene and ATF for Non Scheduled flights have been increased considerably. The case of LPG as fuel is interesting. Due to constricted supplies small restaurants, dhabas, road side eateries have reduced the items in their Menu. Many are charging ‘LPG Tax’ on rates of foodstuff supplied citing purchase of commercial cylinders at higher cost. Though the government has taken precautions and advised against such practices there seems to be some sort of black marketing of cylinders. Situation on the domestic cooking front is also not as before. These is a lag in timelines for supply of cylinders leading to hoarding and panic buying during initial days which seem to have stabilized now.
Another phenomenon reminiscent of COVID is the exodus of workers and daily wage earners from metros to their native villages. Delhi was first to face it. A media house now reports – Mumbai’s key businesses reel under a twin crisis as LPG shortages and migrant exodus drain workforce, stall projects and strain operations across sectors. The real estate and construction sector has been among the hardest hit, with developers reporting a sharp and sudden collapse in workforce availability, bringing projects to a near standstill and raising concerns over cascading delays and cost overruns. The long term impact on India is going to be to immense. The crisis could alter India’s growth trajectory; several economists have started to downgrade their projections. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts 5.9 per cent for 2026, while Oxford Economics Ltd. expects 6.2 per cent. Alexandra Hermann of Oxford Economics states multiple channels are under strain at once, including the rupee, household purchasing power, Gulf remittances, fiscal space and private investment, “The vulnerability is unusually broad-based,” she said. For now, the shock looks cyclical rather than structural, “but if high energy costs, subsidy pressures, and delayed private capex persist, then some of the cyclical damage could start bleeding into potential growth as well,” she said. The combination of a surging energy import bill and a widening fiscal deficit is worrying foreign investors. Overseas funds have pulled nearly $19 billion from local markets in the first few months of the year, close to the full-year record for 2025.
Observers who are in the know suggest that several measures may be contemplated by the Government. One such measure could be a credit guarantee scheme worth ₹2-2.5 trillion ($26.8 billion) for small and medium firms and sectors, this however is still under discussions. The rupee has gone to all-time low of 95 per dollar, prompting RBI to take aggressive steps to curb banks’ speculative bets. India has also intensified energy security efforts during the ceasefire, with ministers visiting Qatar and UAE to secure oil and gas supplies. Apart from supply of crude oil, for liquefied national gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), the high-level engagements with energy-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have been carried out and are of significance as India and GCC are currently negotiating a free trade agreement (FTA). One of the six GCC nations (the UAE, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia) have invested in India’s 5.33 million tonne- strategic reserve.
Whatever one may feel, the future seems tense for common Indians. The ever stretching engagement is taking toll on people and systems. Ensuing events like the State Elections many feel is keeping things on a tight leash and many events may follow once they are over. Most Indian have tended to be happy go lucky, constraint, moderation or self-control in usage of fuels and other essentials. Gone are the days of virtuous, Miss a Meal, it does not seem to be appropriate to most today even as a slogan! As it is the lid in is just somehow on a rather restive populace which is already riding the crest of the revolution of rising expectations.
Many experts and astute observers are of the opinion that now is a time for extreme caution as things are poised at the knife’s edge.
“अल्पस्य हेतोः महान् विनाशः” (Alpasya Hetoh Mahaan Vinashah): ” Asmall mistake can lead to a great disaster.”
