NewsIP had predicted the predicament which laity in India is facing due to the Israel – America War with Iran and continued Ukraine – Russia War. And the convoluted meanderings, sheepish justifications, threats – counter threats, impulsiveness, cussedness, shilly- shalling were all prophesied by NewsIP. Hence the feeling of unparalleled déjà vu is perfectly justified. Esteemed readers should not assume that it’s some sort of gloating. Its indeed a feeling of wonder that how come the minions in the Government did not see it coming? The babus are supposed to plan for extremes, including disasters and tide the nation over complications.
The recent uturn on prepolls commitment of non-increase in fuel prices did not surprise anyone. Everyone in India knew it was coming. As also who was fibbing. As of now, the total increase in prices of Petrol & Diesel is roughly around Rs 4/-. However, Experts are predicting a rise of around Rs 15/-. Well, they also opine that’s its inevitable due to the global rise in Crude prices. It should get appropriately reduced once the Crude Prices settle to a realistic level. On May 1 2026 ; in Delhi, a domestic LPG cylinder costs Rs 913, in Mumbai Rs 912.50, in Chennai Rs 928.50, and in Kolkata Rs 939.
The 5 KG Cylinder, a favourite of daily wage earners and low-income groups, as per sources, OMCs increased the price of these cylinders by Rs 261. The price thus rose from Rs 549 to Rs 810. In April 2026, the price was increased again by Rs 51. Commercial LPG cylinders cost stood at Rs 993. This revision has ensured that the price of a commercial cylinder in Delhi crosses Rs 3000. IGL had earlier raised CNG rates by Rs 2 per kg and again within 48 hours. In Delhi it is now priced at 80.09 per kg. Therefore, a wide-ranging increase has occurred across the Oil & Gas energy spectrum.
And there is fear of more to come. Also, a common man knows that in India, once the rates of any commodity are increased, its rare that they get reduced unless its election time! However, what is surprising is that the huge set up of government minions, whose job it is to take care of these very occurrences, are unable to do anything. The simple principle of input- throughput-output kind of calculation can be applied by a class 8th student also. What is expected of the esoteric, highly qualified, economic masterminds, is a bit more expertise and professionalism.
The war is close to about 5 months old now. In this period, could the expert movers & shakers in Indian government machinery not come about with a concrete plan to reduce the burden on the common man? Now, also imagine the plight of PSU OMCs who are tasked with keeping the costs much below actual market prices and survive. OMCs claim that they are incurring under-recoveries of about Rs 1,600 crore to Rs 1,700 crore a day. Well over ₹1 lakh crore in 10 weeks, as they are forced to shield Indian consumers from the global energy shock (PTI reported quoting sources.) Despite a 50% surge in input crude oil prices, petrol and diesel continue to be sold at around two-year-old rates. Domestic LPG prices were raised but they remain well below the actual cost.
Apart from the price increase, the Govt. has also clarified that Oil firms may borrow more to fund crude purchases and operations. Excise duty cuts have been made, which cost the government about Rs 14,000 crore monthly. Actually, the propagation for greater use of LPG as a cooking agent including the aggressive implementation of Prime Minister Ujjawala Scheme ensured that more citizens started using LPG and became dependent on it. Now with the lack of supplies, the weaker sections of society, especially the daily wagers were left without any cooking medium. The domestic LPG is indeed in short supply in cities and Rs 5 KG cylinder has almost vanished leaving those using these with no option but to return to native places and villages.
This exodus of labour left many industrial townships and metros without adequate manpower. Industries, shops, restaurants, domestic cleaning etc. has got impacted severely. From Milk to ACs all have become costlier. The daily needs are seemingly getting out of reach of the common man. Further, the free fall of Rupee against the US Dollar (as on 20.05.2026 the Cost of One US Dollar is 96.82 Indian Rupee) is a source of huge concern for Financial Experts and Indian travelling abroad. Despite several attempts to use alternate currencies than US Dollars for procurement of Crude & Gas have not succeeded by and large. India has even resorted to paying Russia in Chinese Yuan for purchase of crude oil from Russia maybe as a strategy to navigate of Western sanctions and get manoeuvrability.
But the Indian Rupee has not featured well against many strong currencies of the world. (Some claim 9 currencies have outperformed the Indian Rupee) GST gains have also been eroded due to these wars. Airlines are cutting Flights and requesting for deferment of rise in prices of ATF. Current Account deficits are predicted to widen. India has placed a temporary ban on sugar exports. This precautionary step is intended to secure enough sugar for local consumption. India’s fast-moving consumer goods sector faces a growth downgrade. The Gulf conflict is increasing costs for packaging and transport.
This may force companies to raise prices, impacting consumer spending, especially in villages. Rural demand may slow down again. Companies are already increasing prices or reducing pack sizes. Global consumer research firm Worldpanel by Numerator (formerly Kantar) cut its growth forecast for India’s fast-moving consumer goods industry to 3% from 5% for calendar year 2026 if the conflict continues beyond June and monsoon rains remain weak. Moody’s Ratings has cut India’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 by 0.8 percentage points to 6 per cent, citing weak private consumption, slower capital formation and industrial activity, along with higher energy costs.
It also lowered the 2027 growth outlook to 6 per cent from earlier estimates, pointing to lingering global and domestic pressures. Most Indian companies may get cautious on Capex which is the favourite ingredient of recent Budgets. Notably, Former UN Advisor Santosh Mehrotra urged the government to Tax the Super-Rich instead of relying on indirect taxes on fuel and gold, warning these are fuelling inflation and job losses. He cautioned that escalating geopolitical tensions could push the Indian Rupee to ₹100 against the US dollar within a quarter, exacerbating economic stress.
To the surprise of experts and shock of the common public, a call was given to avoid destination weddings, not buy gold for a year, work from home, avoid spending on shopping which ultimately involves foreign exchange, to conduct online classes, not travel abroad and do carpooling. This led some observers and even common citizens to express that such measures indicate a deeper systemic issue. So, what is the hidden agenda many are asking? Are further hardships in store for the common man?
Do the babus even know of any real/creative way out of the current imbroglio, or the current, not so effective plodding about will continue? Should we better depend on Baba Vanga? It appears, she has predicted tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States. It’s alleged that for 2026 rising fuel prices were predicted.
The much-touted Alternatives, Renewables, Nuclear energy are nowhere near the scale required for a country like India. There is much talk about use of ethanol and even coal bed methane but these are also in their nascent stage although ethanol has made some progress of late. Now does all this instil confidence amongst the general public? Certainly not. The worst part is that no one has any answers! If there are no reactions amongst the common man, it’s just because, he is too busy fending for the rainy day or intent on developing some jugar. As it is, India is surrounded by nations not too friendly disposed towards India. Despite many perceived well doings, India is somehow never at a comfort level with them. Obviously, this state of flux and uncertainty comes in way of real time consolidation. Well, most Indians are keeping their fingers crossed and praying.
It has been proved beyond doubt that one man can actually change the whole world. When the going gets tough the tough get going is not what it is just now.
